Subject: Congressional letter (fwd)
Date: Sat, 4 Jul 1998 103930 -0500 (CDT)
From: "Roy L. Beavers" <rbeavers@llion.org>
To: emfguru@hotmail.com
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.......Hi everybody, we have followed Dr. Maxey's mathematical work
before. It uses the Linet study data (not explained in the following)
to prove that Linet should have come to the opposite conclusion than she
did ... in her childhood leukemia study under the auspices of the National
Cancer Institute (NCI). In fact, her work "proved" a strong association
betweem EMF and childhood leukemia!!! But she couldn't bring herself to
say it.... (That wasn't the answer she was seeking.....)
Now, Dr. Maxey is taking his case to congress (below).....guru......
---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Sat, 04 Jul 1998 09:51:41 -0500
From: Edward Maxey
To: "Roy L. Beavers"
Subject: Congress
Hello Roy Beavers,
Happy Independence day to you and all your
listees!!
Your recent email denoting a perceived "change
in the wind" set me to pondering. Sailors have,
over the centuries, known how to harness winds.
If head winds prevailed they tacked to
starboard and then to port, alternating, until
they eventually got home. This required lots
of work.
If tail winds existed there was little to do
except keep the helmsman awake so that he stayed
on course.
Moderate to strong winds from either side were
much preferred. Sails were then set for a
"broad reach" and ships then attained their best
speed.
All of this took sailors. Without sailors those
at sea were buffetted, first one way and then another,
much as leaves blown on a pond. Hopefully your
list service is making sailors of some of us in
the EMF arena.
Below is recent correspondence with Congressman
Hutchinson. It is submitted by one who wishes
to be a sailor and hopes this action will somewhat
trim a mainsail to catch that "change in the wind."
Cordially,
Ed
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Subject:
Re: ALL from 60 Hz power lines
Date:
Sun, 14 Jun 1998 11:34:13 -0500
From:
Edward Maxey
To:
"Doss, West"
References:
1
Doss, West wrote:
>
> Dr. Maxey: We have received your letter. Our staffer that deals w/
> health issues has left and we have another person hired. I would like
> for that person to take a look at your information. He will be on board
> in a week.
>
> >----------
> >From: Edward Maxey[SMTP:edmaxey@pol.net]
> >Sent: Friday, June 12, 1998 4:09 PM
> >To: Doss, West
> >Subject: ALL from 60 Hz power lines
> >
> >west.doss@mail.house.gov.
> >
> > E. Stanton Maxey, M.D., F.A.C.S.
> > 2811 Joyce Street
> > Fayetteville, Arkansas 72703
> > Telephone (501) 443 7699
> > June 12, 1998
> >
> >Congressman Asa Hutchinson
> >ATTENTION WEST DOSS, Chief of Staff
> >1545 Longworth
> >H.P.O.B.
> >Washington, D.C. 20515
> >
> >Dear Congressman Hutchinson and West Doss:
> >
> >By next Monday more than a month will have transpired
> >since the June 13, 1998, emailing to Congressman Asa
> >Hutchinson and yourself. More than a week will have
> >passed since your telephonic assurance that your office
> >would, "get you and answer."
> >
> >No answer has been received from either the National
> >Cancer Institute or from Congressman Hutchinson.
> >
> >Questions have come up about the integrity of the random
> >number generator used in MICROSOFT BASIC.EXE.
> >Accordingly the program was re-written in C++ which uses
> >a "multiplicative congruential random number generator."
> >It has a period of 2 to the 32nd power. This random
> >number generator is also defined in ANCI C. Here is the
> >printout from a 10,000,000 basket run with each basket
> >containing 624 coins and every coin being counted as
> >either heads or tails.
> >
> >This run found a 5,408 to one probability that 60 Hz
> >power line magnetic fields are causal to childhood acute
> >lymphoblastic leukemia. The value following the "=" is
> >the number of hits for that slot.
> >=======================================================
> >
> >Probability is 5,408 to one.
> >
> >Total Heads = 3,120,196,185
> >
> >248 = 0 249 = 1 250 = 0 251 = 2
> >252 = 4 253 = 3 254 = 13 255 = 8
> >256 = 10 257 = 12 258 = 31 259 = 38
> >260 = 58 261 = 87 262 = 117 263 = 143
> >264 = 194 265 = 265 266 = 377 267 = 486
> >268 = 647 269 = 862 270 = 1091 271 = 1441
> >272 = 1876 273 = 2347 274 = 3084 275 = 3982
> >276 = 5035 277 = 6426 278 = 7949 279 = 9637
> >280 = 11920 281 = 14693 282 = 17967 283 = 21701
> >284 = 25907 285 = 30601 286 = 36274 287 = 42714
> >288 = 50426 289 = 58240 290 = 67746 291 = 77464
> >292 = 88722 293 = 100185 294 = 112743 295 = 126644
> >296 = 140536 297 = 155491 298 = 170592 299 = 185101
> >300 = 200137 301 = 216604 302 = 231233 303 = 247164
> >304 = 260253 305 = 272072 306 = 283909 307 = 294456
> >308 = 303258 309 = 309793 310 = 315141 311 = 317997
> >312 = 318977 313 = 318239 314 = 315719 315 = 309634
> >316 = 303506 317 = 295276 318 = 284460 319 = 273346
> >320 = 260468 321 = 246585 322 = 232185 323 = 216749
> >324 = 201712 325 = 186761 326 = 170540 327 = 155626
> >328 = 140872 329 = 127199 330 = 112916 331 = 100078
> >332 = 89116 333 = 78043 334 = 68225 335 = 58649
> >336 = 50915 337 = 43404 338 = 37179 339 = 31008
> >340 = 26074 341 = 21691 342 = 17715 343 = 14704
> >344 = 12230 345 = 9967 346 = 7579 347 = 6368
> >348 = 5073 349 = 3952 350 = 3176 351 = 2426
> >352 = 1839 353 = 1467 354 = 1138 355 = 847
> >356 = 678 357 = 471 358 = 357 359 = 266
> >360 = 188 361 = 136 362 = 119 363 = 61
> >364 = 58 365 = 31 366 = 30 367 = 18
> >368 = 13 369 = 10 370 = 6 371 = 5
> >372 = 6 373 = 1 374 = 0 375 = 0
> >376 = 1
> >======================================================
> >Here is the program in case you wish to have your staff
> >confirm the validity of the result obtained.
> >******************************************************
> >/*program NCIRAND.C Calculates the probability of 267
> >or less heads when baskets of 624 coins are overturned.*/
> >
> >#include
> >#include
> >#include
> >#include
> >#include
> >#include
> >
> >FILE *textfile; /*pointer to recording file*/
> >int L,H,U,V,Z;
> >float G,F;
> >long I; /*counts up to 10,000,000*/
> >double T; /*counts up to 3,120,000,000*/
> >long Head[130]; /*array to hold 130 hit slots*/
> >
> >
> >int main()
> > {T = 0;
> > U = 0;
> > H = 0;
> > L = 0;
> > clrscr();
> > randomize(); /*produces varying results*/
> > for(V = 0; V < 129; V++)
> > { Head[V] = 0;} /*zero hit array*/
> > G = 0;
> > for(I=1; I < 1000001; I++) /*Number of 634 coin
> > baskets dumped*/
> > {
> > H = 0; F =0;
> > for(V = 1; V < 625; V++) /*get # of heads from 624
> > coins*/
> > {if ((rand() % 10) < 5) H = H + 1;} /*tally hits per
> > basket*/
> > T = T + H; /*tally total hits*/
> > Z = H - 248; /*get Z factor*/
> > Head[Z] = Head[Z] + 1; /*log hit in Head[Z]*/
> > if (H<268) L = L + 1; /*tally hits below 268*/
> > }
> > G = 1000000/L; /*determine probability*/
> > printf("\nProbability is %3.0f",G); /*print
> > probability*/
> > printf(" to one.\n");
> > printf("\nTotal Heads = %3.0lf",T);
> > printf("\n");
> > Z = 247;
> > if ((textfile = fopen("NCIRAND.TXT","w")) == NULL)
> > /*open data file*/
> > {printf("Error opening text file for writing\n");
> > exit(0);}
> > fprintf(textfile,"\nProbability is %3.0f",G);
> > /*file print probability*/
> > fprintf(textfile," to one.\n");
> > fprintf(textfile,"\nTotal Heads = %3.0lf",T);
> > fprintf(textfile,"\n");
> > for(V = 1; V < 130; V++) /*Z -1 and V +1 for file
> > print*/
> > {printf("%3hd",V+Z);
> > fprintf(textfile,"%3hd",V+Z);
> > printf(" = ");
> > fprintf(textfile," = ");
> > printf("%ld",Head[V-1]);
> > fprintf(textfile,"%ld",Head[V-1]);
> > printf(" ");
> > fprintf(textfile," ");
> > if ((V%4) == 0) printf("\n");
> > if ((V%4) == 0) fprintf(textfile,"\n"); /*four slots
> > per line*/
> > }
> > fclose(textfile); /*close file*/
> > return(0);
> > }
> >******************************************************
> >
> >Next week, baring correspondence from the NCI or from
> >Congressman Hutchinson, the emailing of June 13, 1998,
> >will be posted on the internet so that others may become
> >aware that neither the NCI nor Congressman Hutchinson
> >are willing to comment on the evidence showing that
> >power line magnetic fields are killing our children. It
> >seems that we are repeating the tobacco scenario, this
> >time in respect to electric power interests.
> >
> >It is worse than the tobacco tragedy. Now the victims
> >are our own young children.
> >
> >Very truly yours,
> >
> >E. Stanton Maxey, M.D.
> >
Hello West,
Thanks for the message. Do you feel that your office will be able to
respond by July 4th?
Meanwhile the following proof of probability was just received.
Cordially,
Ed
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Subject:
Re: C++ "Linet" study probabilities......
Date:
Sun, 14 Jun 1998 05:10:00 +0200
From:
creuss@bluewin.ch (Christoph Reuss)
To:
"Roy L. Beavers"
CC:
Edward Maxey
Edward Maxey wrote:
> Several months ago results from a BASIC study showing that the
> probability of 60 Hz EMFs being causal to childhood leukemia (the Linet
> study) was 200,000 to one. Recently questions have come up about the
> integrity of the random number function in MICROSOFT's BASIC.
> Accordingly the program was written in C++ using the "rand" function.
> This function "uses a multiplicative congruential random number generator"
> with a period of 2^32. It is available on UNIX and is defined in ANSI C.
[snip]
> ***This run showed a 5,408 to one probability that EMFs are causal
> to childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia.***
Computation Theory tells us that no discrete algorithm run on a finite
state machine (without external true random sources) can provide _true_
random numbers, but only pseudo-random numbers (whether in BASIC or in
C++). And even if the numbers produced by the BASIC or C++ 'random'-
generator were truly random, one instance (one 'run') of your program
would only provide one possible outcome of the random experiment, and to
calculate the true probability would require an infinite number of runs.
Thus, these programs can only provide approximations of the true
probability.
That's why we prefer theoretical calculation in simple statistical
problems
such as your "heads and baskets" example:
The probability of 267 or less heads appearing after a basket of 624
coins
was overturned is:
P [H<=267] = 1/2^624 * SUM(k=0..267) ( 624! / (624-k)! / k! )
= 0.0001795451715
= 1 / 5569.629033
Thus, the actual odds are 5,570 to one. Your C++ program came pretty
close
with 5,408. :-)
But the problem with epidemiological studies like the Linet study is
not
to calculate probabilities according to known simple statistical models,
but
to find those complex statistical models that 'model' (fit) the even
more
complex reality best. (And to model this reality ***correctly***, not
misleadingly like the Linet study did !!). In other words, the problem
is not to find the correct mapping "model-->result" (that's easy), but
to find the correct mapping "reality-->model". No BASIC and no C++
program
can do this for us either...
Cheerio,
Chris
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Subject:
possible human carcinogen
Date:
Thu, 25 Jun 1998 08:34:34 -0500
From:
Edward Maxey
To:
"Doss, West"
Good morning West,
Below is an article which came over the internet this morning.
Please ask your staff to provide me with an email address for
Kenneth Olden, mentioned in the next to last paragraph, so that
the analysis of the Linet study might be emailed to him.
Thank you very much,
Ed Maxey
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.c The Associated Press
By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID
WASHINGTON (AP) - Electric and magnetic fields like those around power
lines
should be considered possible causes of cancer, says a divided panel of
scientists convened by the National Institutes of Health.
``This report does not suggest the risk is high,'' said Michael Gallo,
chairman of the group.
Indeed, the risk ``is probably quite small compared to many other public
health risks,'' said Gallo, a professor at the University of Medicine
and
Dentistry of New Jersey-Robert Wood Medical School in Piscataway.
The new report comes from a National Institutes of Health panel convened
to
review scientific research on the topic. The group, completing 10 days
of
discussions in Brooklyn Park, Minn., voted 19-9 Wednesday to accept the
position that electromagnetic fields should be regarded a ``possible
human
carcinogen.''
Eight members of the panel convened by the NIH's National Institute of
Environmental Health Sciences said that, because of conflicting studies,
they
could not decide whether electrical fields were potential causes of
cancer.
One said they probably are not.
Linda Schoumacher of the Edison Electric Institute, which represents the
electrical industry, said that it would be premature to comment on the
report
but that her organization will be studying it.
The NIH group's finding is at odds with a 1996 report by a National
Research
Council panel of scientists who evaluated about 500 studies on the
health
effects of high voltage power lines and found ``no conclusive and
consistent
evidence'' that electric and magnetic fields cause any human disease.
Studies of the incidence of disease analyzed by NIH group found a slight
increase in childhood leukemia risk for youngsters whose homes are near
power
lines and an increase in chronic leukemia in adults working in
industries
where they are exposed to intensive electric fields.
The group said there wasn't enough evidence to link household exposure
to
power lines to cancer in adults or to associate electromagnetic fields
to such
problems as Alzheimer's disease, depression and birth defects.
They found no evidence of miscarriage from video display terminals and
no
evidence of illness other than leukemia in children.
The panel said it looked at hundreds of studies of animals and cells
exposed
to electric fields that showed little or no effect, raising some concern
about
the ``weak association'' found in the epidemiological studies, which
look at
the incidence of illness.
The earlier National Research Council report noted that some studies had
found
a ``weak, but statistically significant'' link between high voltage
electrical
transmission lines and the incidence of a rare childhood leukemia. But
that
committee found the research to be flawed.
Overall, that panel said, there was no conclusive evidence to link
electromagnetic fields with cancer, reproductive and developmental
abnormalities, learning or behavior.
A 1979 study in Denver, Colo., that found a group of children who died
of
leukemia were more likely to live near to electrical lines than other
youngsters fueled public worry about electrical fields.
The increasing concern prompted Congress in 1992 to fund a research
program
into electromagnetic fields.
The findings completed Wednesday will be used by the director of the
National
Institute of Environmental Health Studies, Kenneth Olden, in preparing a
report to Congress later this year.
Though the link between electricity and disease has long been
controversial,
some consumer groups have sued power companies or forced utility firms
to move
power lines or install shielding.
AP-NY-06-24-98 1811EDT
Copyright 1998 The Associated Press. The information contained in the
AP
news report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise
distributed without prior written authority of The Associated Press.
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Some stalwart hearts will have read this far. Congressman Hutchinson's
chief of staff in a June 5, 1998, telephone call assured me tnat some
answer would be forthcoming. There has been none to this date.
Happy Independence Day to all!!
Ed
Archive provided courtesy of WaveGuide, http://www.wave-guide.org
Reprinted with permission of Roy Beavers, http://www.feb.se/EMF-L/EMF-L.html