Subject: (Hutchison) Lookout Mountain Economic impact study.....(fwd)
Date: Thu, 4 Mar 1999 064040 -0600 (CST)
From: "Roy L. Beavers" <rbeavers@llion.org>
To: emfguru <rbeavers@llion.org>
--------------------------------------------------
Hi everybody:
.......I believe that some of you will want to save this. It is
a good example (I think) of the 'methodology' one might use in
just about any neighborhood to calculate the economic consequences
(losses) as a result of an EMF contamination situation -- in this
case it is Lookout Mountain in Colorado, USA...... But it could
be your town, your island country, your neighborhood......
While I think it is extremely well thought out, I dare to suggest
that there are also consequences beyond the values calculated here.
The analysis, here, concentrates on the losses in property values and tax
base? In addition to that, how about, for instance, the
health/medical/hospital costs -- which we have seen to be so significant
in the case of the tobacco health risks???
Or, for another example -- which may apply directly to Bermuda (Mark)
-- what about losses as a result of tourism decline ... and not just
tourism, but other "business/commercial" growth as well???
My point, and the point of the author below, is that we (society) are
letting these industries which do EMF/environmental harm get off MUCH
TOO EASILY when the trade-offs are debated only in THEIR terms!!.....
They love to talk about "increased costs" of "their" product or service
if they have to comply with health protection 'regulations.' As if
that were the only "cost" in the trade-off..... Dr. Hutchison, below,
is beginning to show that there is much, much more to look at ... than
just what the industries want to consider...... Our governments, too,
federal and local, should pay careful attention to the kind of 'costs'
which Dr. Hutchison presents...... The kind of costs he is raising
(below) would provide the basis for a hell-of-a-good lawsuit against
the FCC, for example.....
At bottom ... is the larger question: Why should society "at large"
be picking up these costs in order to protect the PROFITS of the
vested-interest industries?????? That is happening because the
industries have more 'influence' within our governments than do the
people!!! On these pages of EMF-L, we have seen such circumstances,
locally as well as nationally, many times...... (Ah hell, let's
face it -- the industries OWN the U.S. federal government!!!)
YOU can change that......(Thank you, Dr. Hutchison, for sending this.)
Cheerio.....
Roy Beavers (EMFguru)
rbeavers@llion.org................
...It is better to light a single candle than to curse the darkness...
.................PEOPLE ARE MORE IMPORTANT THAN PROFITS...............
..........DO YOU KNOW OF OTHERS WHO SHOULD BE ON THIS LIST?????.......
Economic Impact Study
Property Value Declines Associated with the Perceived Medical Harm from a
Proposed High Definition Television Broadcast Antenna
Lookout Mountain
Jefferson County
Colorado
by
Roger S. Hutchison, Ph.D.
March 3, 1999
Overview
Microwave is a form of electromagnetic radiation having a wave-length of
between 0.3 and 30 centimeters and corresponding frequencies of between
1-100 gigahertz. High Definition is a new form of a digital transmission
broadcast signal corresponding to these higher frequencies and adopting
digital, versus analog, as the means to broadcast information. This
information includes both television, remote viewing of video
information, and radio. The quality of high definition is between 2 and
4 times greater than its current analog counterpart.
In 1996, the Federal Communication Commission has ordered that all analog
TV transmitters be shut down and replaced by their digital equivalents.
Congress will likely delay this federal mandate until most Americans
replace their old analog television sets. However, the adoption and
ubiquitous usage of high definition digital broadcast of both television
and radio signals is imminent within the first decade of the next century.
The first stations to actually broadcast high definition television began
these broadcast three months agoin November 1998. Within the next 5
years, many if not most television and radio stations will adopt this
digital standard.
The physical infrastructure for analog television and radio broadcast
antennas is already in place. On Lookout Mountain in the Jefferson County
of the State of Colorado, the first broadcast antennas were put in place
in 1956. This land and physical plant equipment is the logical first
choice of the television and radio stations now required to upgrade their
equipment to handle digital broadcasts. On Lookout Mountain, a group
known as the Cedar Lake Group has proposed building a high definition
broadcast antenna on land currently owned by the consortium of radio and
primarily television interests whose business is to broadcast radio and
television to the greater Denver, Colorado community located about 15
miles east of the physical antennas. The idea is simply to add a high
definition broadcast antenna to meet the demands of the FCC, and to
accommodate the growing public interest and demand for improved quality
television and radio broadcasts.
Introduction
A problem has arisen in the community which lives adjacent to the current
analog antennas which centers on the perceived medical harm associated
with higher levels of microwave radiation than exists at this time. The
perception of many of the residents is that increases in background
microwave radiation will lead to an increase in certain forms of cancer
and other harmful medical conditions.
Whether or not these perceptions are based on proven medical science is
debatable. The scientific community seems to have two major disciplines
who has studied the problem. There is also a quasi-scientific interest
group to be mentioned below.
The first scientific group to study the medical issues associated with
microwave radiation levels and increases in disease is the physics
community. By and large, and this is a gross oversimplification of
opinions on this matter, the physics discipline does not believe that the
high frequencies associated with microwave can cause biological tissue to
be damaged except under extreme levels of exposure. The physics
discipline does recognize that being in the path of microwave signals can
cause malfunction in electronic equipment.
The next discipline to address microwave radiation and its impact on
humans is the science of biology. Again, this is a gross
oversimplification but there seems to be wide spread disagreement as to
both if microwave radiation exposure causes medically harmful results,
and if so, at what level of microwave radiation exposure and what
duration of exposure these effects can be induced. There are dozens if
not hundreds of studies both supporting the proposition that radiation in
the microwave spectrum is harmful, and as many if not more studies
indicating that there is no causal linkage which implies statistical
insignificance.
The third scientific group which can be identified which address the
issue of microwave radiation exposure and biological effects is loosely
categorized as the esoteric sciences. This group of adherents is
strongly opposed to any increases in artificial radiation believing that
exposure to this radiation leads to both emotional and biological harm.
This group believe that we live and are surrounded by an ocean of energy
from which matter derives. By concentrating one form of this energy,
significant harm can be caused to any living things within this
concentrated area.
Addressing the validity of these three schools of thought and supporting
or disputing one or another is beyond the scope of this analysis. This
analysis is concerned solely with the effects to property valuation
within the region of effects of the microwave radiation. The analysis is
preliminary and the results should not be used until real numbers are
providing for the actual values of home property within the designated
areas of coverage.
Methodology
The method used in this study establishes a baseline for the value of the
average property within two specific regions. The first region is the
widely accepted zone of influence of radiation effects with the existing
towers on Lookout Mountain. For the purposes of this study, this region
of influence is set at 1.5 miles. The region is a circle whose epicenter
is the geographic center of the current antenna cluster on Lookout
Mountain. The study assumes that there are 1,500 homes within this zone
with an average current property value of $200,000.00. This is Zone 1.
The second region or zone is Zone 2. Zone 2 is the region of effects
assumed to be relevant once the high definition television antenna is
installed an operational. This zone two has a radius of effects moving
from the geographic center of the antenna outwards in a circle for 5
miles. The study assumes that the average property value of homes within
this expanded region in $300,000.00 and that there are 5,000 homes within
Zone 2.
Assuming that there are 1,500 homes with a current market value of
$200,000.00 each, that makes the property assets within Zone 1 in 1999 a
market value of $300 million dollars. At a tax rate of approximately
105 mils, this asset generates approximately $300,000.00 of tax revenue
to the County Government. If you extend this to zone 2, the tax revenue
is now increased to 5,000 homes with an average current market value of
$1.5 billion generating approximately $1.5 million in tax revenue to the
County.
For purposes of this study, it is assumed that the average property has
doubled in value since 1989, and will double again in the next 10 years if
all things remain equal.
If this assumption is correct, then Zone 1 property values increase to an
asset taxable base of $600 million by the year 2010. Zone 2 property
value increase to $3 billion. The corresponding tax revenue is doubled
going to $600,000 in Zone 1 and $3 million in Zone 2.
A final assumption in this study is that the perception of medical harm
associated with high definition television microwave broadcast signals
within the effected region will have a negative impact on the commercial
valuation of residential (and perhaps commercial) homes within the
effected zones. For the purposes of this study, this negative impact
starts as a multiplier, or factor with a base year of 1998 as 0 and moves
to a high of .15 or 15% within 10 years, and then declines over the next
10 years back to a base of zero.
Results
Using these figures and assumptions, the following are the economic
impact results.
Economic Impact on Individual Home Values in the year 2010 in Zone 1.
Average home price should be $400,000.00. Average home price is
$360,000.00. Net loss to the County in foregone property tax revenue on
declines in values totaling $60 million or approximately $600,000.00.
This is an annual as opposed to one time loss.
Economic Impact on Individual Home Values in the year 2010 in Zone 2.
Average home price should be $600,000.00. Average home price is
$510,000.00. Net loss to the County in foregone property tax revenue on
declines in value totaling approximately $450million per year or
approximately $4.5 million in foregone tax revenue. This is an annual
loss as opposed to a one time loss.
Conclusion
The perception of reality is that living within a five mile radius and
having a direct line of sight of a high definition television antenna can
cause medical harm to human beings. This perception may not be based on
medical or scientific fact but causes concerns within the community.
This perception of reality makes property within the effected zones less
attractive to both existing occupants as well as prospective new buyers.
Why should I move to Lookout Mountain and possibly expose myself and my
family to danger when I can move elsewhere and not face this risk? This
perception of reality can have the same negative effect on the valuation
of property as real effects. The overall result is a decline in property
values which has two impacts. The first impact is on the private
property owner. The second impact is on the lost tax revenue generated
due to property valuation declines.
Assumptions
The assumptions used in this preliminary analysis were the best ones
available to me at the time of this report. The figures used are not
accurate and the results of this study should not be presented as my
opinion until corrected figures are used to replace the base figures
presented here.
Assumption #1: There are 1,500 homes with an average value of
$200,000.00 in 1999 within a 1.5 mile radius of the existing antenna farm
on Lookout Mountain. Zone 1.
Assumption #2: There are 5,000 homes with an average value of
$300,000.00 in 1999 within a 5 mile radius of the proposed antenna farm
on Lookout Mountain. Zone 2.
Assumption #3: The taxable mil rate is 105 mil.
Assumption #4: The average property values in both Zone 1 and Zone 2
will double in value in the next 10 years if all things remain the same.
Assumption #5: There will be some negative effect on the value of these
homes due to the perception of reality, versus reality, and that this
negative effect starts as zero in the base year 1998 and gradually
increases to a high within 10 years of 15% to peak in the year 2010. This
negative effect will thereafter decline returning to a base year of 2020
in which the effects will be zero once again.
Limitations
This study is done under significant time constraints. The results
presented are for one year only. The study needs to use real figures
provided by either the real estate community or the County Government.
The study needs to add the cumulative 20 year effects of property declines
in value and subsequent tax losses over this same 20 year period.
Economic Impact Study
Property Value Declines Associated with the Perceived Medical Harm from a
Proposed High Definition Television Broadcast Antenna
Lookout Mountain
Jefferson County
Colorado
by
Roger S. Hutchison, Ph.D.
March 3, 1999
Overview
Microwave is a form of electromagnetic radiation having a wave-length of betwee
n 0.3 and 30 centimeters and corresponding frequencies of between 1-100 gigaher
tz. High Definition is a new form of a digital transmission broadcast signal c
orresponding to these higher frequencies and adopting digital, versus analog, a
s the means to broadcast information. This information includes both televisio
n, remote viewing of video information, and radio. The quality of high definit
ion is between 2 and 4 times greater than its current analog counterpart.
In 1996, the Federal Communication Commission has ordered that all analog TV tr
ansmitters be shut down and replaced by their digital equivalents. Congress wi
ll likely delay this federal mandate until most Americans replace their old ana
log television sets. However, the adoption and ubiquitous usage of high definit
ion digital broadcast of both television and radio signals is imminent within t
he first decade of the next century.
The first stations to actually broadcast high definition television began these
broadcast three months agoin November 1998. Within the next 5 years, many if
not most television and radio stations will adopt this digital standard.
The physical infrastructure for analog television and radio broadcast antennas
is already in place. On Lookout Mountain in the Jefferson County of the State
of Colorado, the first broadcast antennas were put in place in 1956. This land
and physical plant equipment is the logical first choice of the television and
radio stations now required to upgrade their equipment to handle digital broad
casts. On Lookout Mountain, a group known as the Cedar Lake Group has proposed
building a high definition broadcast antenna on land currently owned by the co
nsortium of radio and primarily television interests whose business is to broad
cast radio and television to the greater Denver, Colorado community located abo
ut 15 miles east of the physical antennas. The idea is simply to add a high de
finition broadcast antenna to meet the demands of the FCC, and to accommodate t
he growing public interest and demand for improved quality television and radio
broadcasts.
Introduction
A problem has arisen in the community which lives adjacent to the current analo
g antennas which centers on the perceived medical harm associated with higher l
evels of microwave radiation than exists at this time. The perception of many
of the residents is that increases in background microwave radiation will lead
to an increase in certain forms of cancer and other harmful medical conditions.
Whether or not these perceptions are based on proven medical science is debat
able. The scientific community seems to have two major disciplines who has stu
died the problem. There is also a quasi-scientific interest group to be mentio
ned below.
The first scientific group to study the medical issues associated with microwav
e radiation levels and increases in disease is the physics community. By and l
arge, and this is a gross oversimplificatiolevision microwave broadcast signals
within the effected region will have a negative impact on the commercial valua
tion of residential (and perhaps commercial) homes within the effected zones.
For the purposes of this study, this negative impact starts as a multiplier, or
factor with a base year of 1998 as 0 and moves to a high of .15 or 15% within
10 years, and then declines over the next 10 years back to a base of zero.
Results
Using these figures and assumptions, the following are the economic impact resu
lts.
Economic Impact on Individual Home Values in the year 2010 in Zone 1. Average h
ome price should be $400,000.00. Average home price is $360,000.00. Net loss
to the County in foregone property tax revenue on declines in values totaling $
60 million or approximately $600,000.00. This is an annual as opposed to one t
ime loss.
Economic Impact on Individual Home Values in the year 2010 in Zone 2. Average
home price should be $600,000.00. Average home price is $510,000.00. Net loss
to the County in foregone property tax revenue on declines in value totaling
approximately $450million per year or approximately $4.5 million in foregone ta
x revenue. This is an annual loss as opposed to a one time loss.
Conclusion
The perception of reality is that living within a five mile radius and having a
direct line of sight of a high definition television antenna can cause medical
harm to human beings. This perception may not be based on medical or scientif
ic fact but causes concerns within the community. This perception of reality m
akes property within the effected zones less attractive to both existing occupa
nts as well as prospective new buyers. Why should I move to Lookout Mountain a
nd possibly expose myself and my family to danger when I can move elsewhere and
not face this risk? This perception of reality can have the same negative eff
ect on the valuation of property as real effects. The overall result is a decl
ine in property values which has two impacts. The first impact is on the priva
te property owner. The second impact is on the lost tax revenue generated due
to property valuation declines.
Assumptions
The assumptions used in this preliminary analysis were the best ones available
to me at the time of this report. The figures used are not accurate and the re
sults of this study should not be presented as my opinion until corrected figur
es are used to replace the base figures presented here.
Assumption #1: There are 1,500 homes with an average value of $200,000.00 in 1
999 within a 1.5 mile radius of the existing antenna farm on Lookout Mountain.
Zone 1.
Assumption #2: There are 5,000 homes with an average value of $300,000.00 in 1
999 within a 5 mile radius of the proposed antenna farm on Lookout Mountain. Z
one 2.
Assumption #3: The taxable mil rate is 105 mil.
Assumption #4: The average property values in both Zone 1 and Zone 2 will doub
le in value in the next 10 years if all things remain the same.
Assumption #5: There will be some negative effect on the value of these homes
due to the perception of reality, versus reality, and that this negative effect
starts as zero in the base year 1998 and gradually increases to a high within
10 years of 15% to peak in the year 2010. This negative effect will thereafter
decline returning to a base year of 2020 in which the effects will be zero onc
e again.
Limitations
This study is done under significant time constraints. The results presented a
re for one year only. The study needs to use real figures provided by either t
he real estate community or the County Government. The study needs to add the
cumulative 20 year effects of property declines in value and subsequent tax los
ses over this same 20 year period.
ates s Television and radio station owners need a place to put their digital a
ntennas as now required by law.ce. On Lookout Mountain in Jefferson County in
were put in place in 1956. The existing land and physical
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using the older analog equipmenton Lookout Mountain A large elementary school
called Ralston is located within the region of coverage of the new high definit
ion broadcast antenna. of medical harm expert This analysis centers on the fact
that microwave radiation is a form of non-ionizing radiation. Ionizing radiat
ion, like gamma rays or x-rays, can deposit energy in neighboring atoms resulti
ng in the removal of electrons. Non-ionizing radiation does not have this phys
ical effect.potential pread disagreement as to whether or not to living animals
, like humansto biological harm. Since this in studies, the jury is still out
on the biological sciences and the question of medical harmth emotional and bio
logical dis-ease, or distress in, a type of primordial soup, physical man-made
and artificially produced d supporting or disputing one overuntil real numbers
are provided The assumptions used in this analysis all should be refined by th
e appropriate experts who have actual, versus hypothetical, figures. However,
the method and results of this study are sound.d Zone 2 extends to the near-by
region of Genessee, and the community known as Riva Chase.rnment. If you exte
nd this to Zs.0 by the year 2010.0 million in Zone 2 per year.cast signals with
in the exposedercial valuation of residential10 years back to a base of zero in
the year
Archive provided courtesy of WaveGuide, http://www.wave-guide.org
Reprinted with permission of Roy Beavers, http://www.feb.se/EMF-L/EMF-L.html