Subject:  U.S. Presidential Race, Bush Moving Ahead (guru).
Date:     Sun, 22 Oct 2000 143232 -0500
From:     Roy Beavers 
To:       guru 
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Hi everybody:

As reported in the news story I forward below, George "Wall Street" Bush
is moving ahead of Al "the Apoligizer" Gore.

The nicknames I have just used ... go some of the way to explaining the
process that is taking place in the race.  George Bush -- beholden to
virtually every corporate CEO on Wall Street -- enjoys the advantage
of million$$$$ of both "hard" and "soft" political money that fuels the
engine of his campaign machinery.  Everything from thousands of paid
staff and employee phone banks to million$$$$ of paid TV time.  The 
BIG $$$$$$$ donors consider that their "investment" will be repaid many 
times by Georgie's promised tax reforms, alone.  (Poor guys!!  Corporate
America already enjoys more tax advantages than the average citizen....)

Al Gore, on the other hand, spent most of the past four years as Bill
Clinton's highest ranking apoligizer.  As a consequence, he is carrying
a HUGE burden with approximately 40% of the electorate, who want this
election to be nothing less than **retribution** to Clinton for his 
Monica Lewinsky behavior in the White House -- AND his "cover-up" 
activities which (not only violated his oath of office, but) also
probably LEGALLY justified his removal from office.....  In the end, he 
was not removed because the Democrats in the Senate failed to display 
the nonpartisan kind of patriotism that had been displayed by the 
Republicans in the Nixon case some 25 years earlier.

But, there is more to the present story.....  The writer below emphasizes
the impact of Ralph Nader's presence in the campaign.  Nader's presence
is a factor -- there can be little argument about that.  Nader probably
does draw most of his support from the left and moderate side of the U.S.
political spectrum.  Most of that vote would be expected to go to Gore
if Nader were not running.....  (Or -- alternatively -- they are formerly
non-voters who are now being energized by Nader, and would otherwise not
influence the outcome.  There are MANY of such, I believe, in the
Nader camp.)

For my part, I see George W. Bush's apparent success in winning the
"women's vote" as an even bigger influence on the eventual outcome.

Republicans traditionally have had to settle for about 35% to 40% of the 
female voters tallying in their column.  Bush is threatening to raise 
that number to 45% or 50%.  There is every likelihood that such unusual 
support (for the Republican candidate) by "the fair sex" will mean the 
difference in some of the key states, like Ohio and Missouri.  (WHY, in
God's name, the women are so disposed -- I have no idea!!!)

At this time, there is no evidence in the polling that the men's vote is
going to change substantially from its past historic pattern -- a slight 
majority going to the Republicans.

So ... with the other two significant "third party" candidates garnering
perhaps a total of 7% or 8% of the total vote ... Bush begins to look
like the eventual winner.....

But! ... Remember! ... The "popular" vote total is NOT what elects a 
President!!  In the U.S., the President is actually elected by the 
Electoral  College.  And the Electoral College votes for each state 
are based, finally, on which candidate **wins the state**.  Thus, it 
is possible that the candidate who wins in the popular vote on a 
nationwide basis -- may lose in the electoral vote by failing to "carry" 
a majority of the electoral votes of the states.....!!!  

The electoral votes for each state are determined by the population of the
state (actually matching the number of senators and congressmen of the 
state).  The winner of the state vote -- gets ALL the electoral votes of
that state!!  Thus, it may be more important to "carry" many of the large 
"electoral college states" -- like California and New York -- than to
win the popular vote nationally. (Gore may have some advantages in this
aspect, though, at the moment, that too is difficult to assess.)

Usually, the winner "carries" the majority in both venues....

Anyway, you can be sure that guru will be closely watching (on election
night) the way the Electoral college is going -- not the way the popular
vote is going......  The story below is telling you about the popular vote,
not the electoral college.....

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/htx/nm/20001022/ts/campaign_leadall_dc_109.html

Cheerio.......

Roy Beavers (EMFguru)
roy@emfguru.com

It is better to light a single candle
  than to curse the darkness.....

WEBSITE:  http://emfguru.com

People are more important than profit$$
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Bush Moving Ahead As Race Enters Closing Stretch


By Alan Elsner, Political Correspondent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Repub=
lican George W. Bush appears to
be consolidating his small lead over Democrat Al Gore as the
U.S. presidential race enters its frenetic closing stretch.
Since their=
 third and final debate last Tuesday, the Texas
governor has solidified a small but crucial lead over the vice
president with 16 days to go before the Nov. 7 election.
Bush led Gore =
in all available national polls by from 3
percent to 11 percent. In the Reuters/MSNBC daily tracking poll
released on Sunday, he led by 45 percent to 41 percent, his
largest lead since the survey began on Sept. 29.
Green Party candidate =
Ralph Nader polled 5 percent; Reform
Party hopeful Pat Buchanan scored 1 percent, while 7 percent of
voters remained undecided.
``Gore has a problem. In addition to not get=
ting his message
through, the difference in this race right now is Ralph Nader,''
said pollster John Zogby.
``If Gore moves to the left with a populist m=
essage, he
risks losing ground in the vital center. If he moves to the
center he will watch Nader's support increase,'' he said.
The 2000 elec=
tion is one of the most crucial in many years
since control of the Senate and the House of Representatives
are also up for grabs.
Democrats have an outside chance of winning cont=
rol of the
Senate, where Republicans currently hold a 54-46 majority. In
the 435-member House, a net pickup of only seven seats could
swing control to the Democrats for the first time since 1994.
Newspaper=
s on Sunday began publishing their endorsements
ahead of Election Day. Gore received endorsements from the
Washington Post, the St. Louis Post Dispatch, the Minneapolis
Star-Tribune, and the San Francisco Chronicle.
Bush was endorsed by the=
 Portland Oregonian, the Seattle
Times, the Cleveland Plain Dealer, the Columbus (Ohio)
Dispatch, the Detroit News, and the Dallas Morning News.
Gore, searchin=
g for a way to turn the presidential race
around, planned a foray into Bush's home state of Texas on
Sunday to attack his plans to partially privatize Social
Security and pull U.S. peacekeepers from the Balkans.
<=
b>``Barnstorm For Reform''
Bush was to launch a ``Barnstorm =
for Reform'' campaign from
Austin that will involve 28 fellow Republican governors fanning
out through swing states over the next three days.
``We are very excite=
d about this, this is unprecedented,''
said Bush senior advisor Ari Fleischer. ``We have every
Republican governor save one coming into Austin to meet with
Governor Bush then barnstorm across the United States.''
The missing go=
vernor is West Virginia's Cecil Underwood,
who is fighting a tough campaign at home to keep his job.
The governors=
 will split into groups and spread out across
the country from Monday to Wednesday, stopping in more than 45
cities in 25 states that represent about 319 electoral votes.
With the =
national race so close, attention was swinging to
the state-by-state contest to win the 270 Electoral College
votes necessary to be elected president.
One estimate by veteran politi=
cal analyst Hal Bruno for the
Politics.com Internet site gave Bush =
213 electoral votes, Gore
186 and had 139 votes up for grabs and too close to call.
However, indi=
vidual state polls in the Midwest appeared to
confirm that Gore's position was weakening in the toughest
battleground of the nation.
For example, a poll in Illinois released on=
 Sunday showed
Gore leading by only 45 percent to 43 percent -- well within
the poll's margin of error.
Last month, Gore had opened a double-digit =
lead in
Illinois, prompting Bush to pull his TV advertising from the
state to concentrate on more promising battlegrounds.
Interviewed on th=
e ``Fox News Sunday'' program, Wisconsin's
Republican Gov. Tommy Thompson said he believed Bush could
carry both his state and Minnesota, both of which went
Democratic in the past three presidential elections.
``We're cautiously=
 optimistic that we're going to carry
Wisconsin, and if we carry Wisconsin, Minnesota is also in
play,'' Thompson said.
But Louisiana Sen. John Breaux, a Democrat, said=
 the race
remained volatile with many voters still weighing their final
decisions.
``A very unsettled election. I think people are still
looking at it as a popularity contest. The next two weeks are
going to be absolutely clear. It has to be a campaign and
election based on competence and qualifications and not
popularity,'' he said.

Email this story -&n=
bsp;(View most popular)  | =
; Formatted version


Earlier Stories<=
br>
Gore Hits Bush on Balkans Pullback (Octob=
er 21)

Gore, Bush Enlist Allies in Race for Votes (October 21)

Bush, Gore Put Campaign Focus on Economy =
(October 20)

Gore, Bush Put Campaign Focus on Economy (=
October 19)

Tight Presidential Campaign Enters Closing Stretch (October 18)

Gore, Bush Seek Words to Persuade Undecided Voters (October 17)







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